Abstract The Impact of Foreign Trade Volume on Sustainable Development in the Libyan Economy: An Applied Study Using the ARDL Model for the Period 1990-2022

Abstract

     This paper examines the relationship between foreign trade volume (TVR) and sustainable development (SD) in the Libyan economy in the short and long-term using the autoregressive Distributed lag (ARDL) model for the period 1990 – 2022. The study evaluates the mechanisms through which TVR impacts Hickes's sustainable Development Index (SDI) which integrates measures of environmental and human well-being.

The result indicates a positive counteraction between foreign trade volume (TVR) and the SDL driven by GDP growth and capita GDP.

However, inflation and unemployment significantly undermine sustainability outcomes. The findings emphasize the importance of diversifying export markets beyond hydrocarbons, implementing economic stabilization measures, and promoting fair labor policies to align trade-driven growth with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) . Targeted interventions to address inflationary pressures and expand job access could enhance the SDL trajectory in Libya, fostering resilience in well-being under economic and environmental constraints.