Analyzing the relationship between climate change and land cover under future climate scenarios and its impact on desert tourism in the city of Ghadames

Abstract

sustainability. A descriptive–analytical and comparative approach was employed through the analysis of long-term climatic time series (1901–2020), evaluation of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the period (2018–2025), and assessment of Land Surface Temperature (LST) variations across land cover categories. The results reveal a clear upward trend in both maximum and minimum temperatures, accompanied by a narrowing diurnal temperature range and fluctuating precipitation patterns. A negative correlation was identified between NDVI and LST, confirming the mitigating role of vegetation in reducing surface heating. Bare lands were concentrated within the highest thermal classes (37–39°C), making them the least suitable areas for tourism-related activities. The annual mean LST increased between 0.81°C in rangelands and 1.66°C in tree-covered areas, alongside a noticeable decline in daily thermal amplitude. Future climate projections (2000–2100) indicate that the RCP8.5 scenario records the highest projected increase, reaching 28.17°C by 2100. The study recommends expanding afforestation initiatives, establishing a continuous monitoring system for LST and NDVI, and integrating climate indicators into heritage site management plans to enhance adaptive capacity.