The Repercussions of the Military Conflict in Sudan on Libyan National Security An Analytical Approach

Abstract

The military conflict that erupted on April 15, 2023, between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces is not merely an internal conflict within a country historically prone to such strife. Instead, it represents a struggle with far-reaching consequences that reverberate across borders, particularly impacting neighboring Libya and its national security. Drawing upon the geological theory of "Aftershock," which posits that earthquakes in one location often generate aftershocks in other regions directly linked to the original seismic event, this study establishes a foundational framework to address the following research question: What are the implications of the military conflict in Sudan on Libyan national security?

The significance of this research lies in its exploration of the critical and ongoing repercussions of Sudan’s armed conflict on Libya’s national security, which remains fragile and has yet to recover fully. The study employs several research methodologies, including the historical method to trace and analyze relevant texts, as well as the inductive and analytical methods for measurement and argumentation. The research is organized into three main sections: the first examines the military conflict in Sudan; the second provides a conceptual approach to national security; and the third highlights the aftershocks of the Sudanese conflict on Libyan national security, using the Aftershock theory as a framework.

The study concludes with several findings, most notably that the military conflict in Sudan has generated significant aftershocks on Libya's demographic, economic, security, and health structures. These include the infiltration of armed movements, the influx of weapons, and other critical security, military, economic, and social ramifications.